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Note: This program is in development,
and is subject to change, expansion, and editing. As well,
individual topics and papers are being proposed by participants as
the conference planning progresses. See also the
Call for Papers
note at the foot of this page, by clicking here.
Day One:
08.00: Conference Registration.
Continental breakfast.
09.00: Conference Opening and Welcoming
Remarks. Pamela von Gruber, ISSA Executive Director.
09.05-09.15: Formal Welcome from
Australian Officials
09.30: Opening Address:
The Indian Ocean as the World’s Critical
Strategic Theater of the 21st Century.
The Indian Ocean strategic theater is now home to a third of the
world’s population, and an economic base exceeding $4-trillion in
combined GDP. It is also a critical transit zone — the Great Silk
Sea Route — for resources and manufactures transiting to and from
Asian and European markets. It is also home to great strategic
rivalries and conflicts, which have global ramifications. The future
of the US and the PRC in the Indian Ocean. The transformation of US
presence in the region as a major maritime power? Speaker: Gregory
R. Copley, President, ISSA.
10.00-10.30: Morning Tea and Coffee
Break
10.30-12.30: Workshops [Delegates
choose one of the three]
1A: Conflict & Security
The Indian Ocean as a Zone of Nuclear
Powers: India, Pakistan, Iran, Israel
The concept of an Indian Ocean Zone of Peace (IOZOP) has been
eclipsed by the widespread adoption of nuclear weapons by Indian
Ocean states, and the acquisition – and then retirement – of
nuclear weapons by South Africa. The Indian Ocean also hosts
nuclear weapons capabilities of external powers. This workshop
looks at the great differences in nuclear weapons doctrine of
the four nuclear weapons states, and at the prospect for the
acquisition of nuclear weapons by other states, and by non-state
players.
1B: Energy, Water, Food & Agriculture Needs
and Availability in the Indian Ocean Region
Disparate and changing pressures of the energy-food-water
matrix; options for growth, and the potential for domestic
disruption and inter-state conflict. How urbanization impacts
energy, water, food, and agricultural needs and the manpower and
infrastructure to deliver appropriate results. How skill-sharing
in these interrelated areas can dampen spikes in shortages, and
minimize economic and social impact. A look at new approaches to
land/water management and productivity.
1C: Socio-Political Issues
Border and Internal Security: Managing
Population Movement
Regional and intra-region economic migration and refugee
patterns, and the impact on economic growth, political cohesion,
and security. Identifying past, present, and anticipated refugee
patterns in the region, and what can be done to prevent refugee
flows, and how they can be dealt with when they arise. Lessons
from the Afghanistan wars, Somalia, the Ethiopia-Eritrea wars,
the Sri Lankan civil war, and conflict and natural disaster in
Pakistan. How refugee issues shape strategic outcomes.
12.30-14.00:
Luncheon. Keynote Address: Communications and Collective
Decisionmaking by Indian Ocean States.
14.00-15.00:
Plenary Session: Statistically Quantifying the Indian Ocean in
Security, Trade, and Strategic Terms.
Two speakers look at resources and how they are dispersed through
the Indian Ocean region; industrial and economic growth patterns;
agricultural and related food, water, and energy generation issues
in statistical terms; the importance of transit trade.
15.00-15.30: Afternoon Tea and Coffee
Break
15.30-17.30: Workshops
2A: Conflict & Security
The Growth, and Growing Independence, of
Regional Defense and Strategic Capabilities
Transforming defense and security capabilities in the Indian
Ocean region following the collapse of the superpower era. A
look at defense (and national security R&D) spending, and the
transforming threat and security environments which dictate
present and anticipated changes. What do the changes mean for
regional states in terms of local competition? How do changes
impact on out-of-region powers operating in the Indian Ocean?
2B: Energy
Security
Priority One: Threats to the Grids
Vulnerabilities of electrical, cyber, and communications grids
in the Indian Ocean region, and consequences of network
failures. Regional cyber warfare capabilities; vulnerabilities
to domestic, regional, or out-of-region threats. The
consequences of network collapse – electric grid, computer,
communications – in various IO states. Utilization of cyber
warfare in the region; cyber warfare links to out-of-region
powers. Vulnerabilities of net-centric military ops in
Afghanistan and Pakistan. The promises and vulnerabilities of
smart power grids.
2C: Socio-Political Issues
Cooperation in Disaster Response: the Core
of Humanitarian Diplomacy
National and trans-national disaster response in the Indian
Ocean Region. An analysis of the effectiveness of multinational
response to major natural and man-made disasters in the region
since the 2004 tsunami. What protocols are now in place, and
what new protocols and structures need to be created? What can
be done to improve early warning and intelligence sharing in
weather- or seismically-originating events? What infrastructure
and systems need to be put in place?
19.30: The
Strategy2011 Gala Banquet.
Day Two:
08.00: Continental breakfast.
09.00-09.05: Introductory Remarks.
Pamela von Gruber, ISSA Executive Director.
09.15-09.30:
Plenary Session: The Role of Regional Organizations: Can ASEAN
Become the EU of the Indian Ocean
The evolution and the outlook for sovereign status of nation-states,
and the development and impact of regional and sub-regional bodies.
Can existing regional bodies cope with the needs of their Indian
Ocean sub-regions? Can ASEAN achieve the status of a confederated
state in its own right? What are the lessons for other regional
bodies, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), SAARC and SADC?
Is the UN still an effective body in the region? Is there a need for
new multi- national mechanisms? What role for the Commonwealth in
the region as Perth prepares to host CHOGM.. Speaker: Gregory R.
Copley, President, ISSA.
09.30-10.00:
Plenary Session: Informal Security Threats, Secessionist Movements,
and Frozen Conflicts in the Indian Ocean Region: The Costs and the
Opportunities
By Yossef Bodansky, Research Director, ISSA.
10.00-10.30: Morning Tea and Coffee
Break
10.30-12.30: Workshops
3A: Conflict & Security
Defense Industrialization and the
Aerospace Industries in the Indian Ocean Region: at the Core of
National Technological Stability and Growth?
A number of Indian Ocean states have produced world-leading
strategic technologies, and are exporting them. Will the region
move, in the next decade, from being a net import region for
defense, maritime, and aerospace goods, to net export region? A
look at missile, satellite, warship, military vehicle, and
ordnance production in the region, and at the size of the
marketplace.
3B: Politics, Economics, &
Resources
The Impact of Evolving Climate Conditions
on the Economic and Political Future of the Region
Constantly evolving climate conditions have driven population
movement and economic transformation in the Indian Ocean region
for millennia. What mechanisms are available to help coordinate
actions by regional states to cope with the latest round of
changing weather patterns? What is the likely impact of these
changes on economies, population placement, and infrastructure
over the coming decades?
3C:Socio-Political Issues
Secessionist and Internal Conflicts in the
Region: the Impact on Economic and Social Cohesion
A statistical look at recent events in the Horn of Africa and
the African East Coast; in Afghan- istan and South Asia; in
Indonesia, and else- where. The impact on national and group
identity and the consequences for nation building. The impact of
the Kosovo, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Eritrea separations. A
look at why Somaliland’s situation differs and is strategically
important.
12.30-14.00: Luncheon Keynote Address:
TBA
14.00-15.00:
Plenary Session: Links Across the Southern Ocean, and the Ignored
Strategic Significance of Antarctica
Australia and South Africa control key access routes through the
Indian Ocean, and Australia dominates the future of the Antarctic
landmass and zone. Trade and relations between Southern Africa and
Australia seem set to become more important, and Antarctica seems
set to become of global significance as a potential resource region
just as the Antarctic Treaty regime is transforming and collapsing.
Two speakers.
15.00-15.30: Afternoon Tea and Coffee
Break
15.30-17.30: Workshops
4A: Conflict & Security
Intelligence Sharing Among Indian Ocean
States: Tactical to Strategic
Building a more comprehensive mutual understanding and
cooperation in the region through formal and informal
intelligence sharing mechanisms. Consequences for
confidence-building and other asset-sharing, such as space-based
systems. Scope for cooperation in intelligence training, and in
increasing autonomy and professionalism in regional intelligence
and security services, including criminal and customs
intelligence.
4B: Politics, Economics, &
Resources
Space Resources, Capabilities, and Needs
in the Indian Ocean Region
Several Indian Ocean states have a long history of
engagement in pioneering space research, but today, space-based
resources are the key to economic progress — including resource
management, communications, and other issues — as well as
security. A look at the areas of competition and potential
cooperation in the Indian Ocean region. A look at space launch
capabilities in the region, and the prospects for cooperation
with out-of-region market leaders.
4C:Socio-Political Issues
New Soft Power Projection Capabilities in
the Indian Ocean: The Case for Technology and Skill Sharing
Through Agricultural Diplomacy
Dampening interstate population movement is heavily dependent on
building stable, productive societies throughout the region.
This requires, among other things, across the board improvements
in food availability, which can be achieved by diplomacy built
around providing agricultural skills, new energy technologies,
and water useage capabilities.
Day Three:
08.00: Continental breakfast.
09.00-09.05: Housekeeping Remarks.
Pamela von Gruber, ISSA Executive Director.
09.05-09.30:
Plenary Session: Transnational Crime in the Indian Ocean Region.
A look at piracy, resource poaching, terrorism, cyber crime,
narco-trafficking, and border violation
Speaker TBA
09.30-10.00:
Plenary Session: India as the Next Global Power? Its Outlook,
Opportunities, and Responsibilities.
Speaker TBA
10.00-10.30: Morning Tea and Coffee
Break
10.30-12.30: Workshops
5A: Conflict & Security
Iranian Strategic Growth and Power
Projection: the End of the Great Game, and Options for
Out-of-Region Defense Powers in the Indian Ocean Theater
Iran, for a variety of reasons, will emerge as a
significant strategic player in the Indian Ocean, as well as the
greater Middle East, in the coming decade. A nuclear Iran now
exists. Will it dominate the Arabian Peninsula?
The Future for Out-of-Region Defense Power in the Indian Ocean
The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, plus piracy, have skewed the
military balance in the Indian Ocean. What next? Who can afford
major deployments? The rise of surrogate powers.
5B: Politics, Economics, &
Resources
Offshore Indian Ocean Resources: the
Prospects for Regional Economic Growth. Will the Markets Hold?
Mapping ocean-based mineral and energy resources; fisheries
trends, conservation and related sovereignty issues. Developing
protocols for resource protection and investment.
The Success and Options of Sub-Regional Economic Blocs
Sub-regional economic zones have had mixed success in the Indian
Ocean region. What are the options for ASEAN, SADC, IGAD, SAARC,
and other blocs and emerging free trade zones?
5C: Socio-Political Issues
Population Trends: Urbanization and
De-Urbanization; Demographics and Pandemics. Where is it all
Going?
Some Indian Ocean states are recording the largest
population growth statistics in the world; others are in
population decline. What will be the impact on population
numbers and spreads as new global economic, pandemic, and
social/security trends make their mark. What tools are available
for population planning, and what are the goals for population
sizes, shapes, and welfare in the coming decades?
12.30-14.00: Luncheon
14.00-15.00:
Plenary Session: The Global and Regional Impact of the Evolving War
in Afghanistan.
Two speakers, including Yossef Bodansky, who has written and
lectured extensively on this subject.
15.00-15.30: Afternoon Tea and Coffee
Break
15.30-17.30: Workshops
6A: Conflict & Security
Resolving the Power Vacuum and Conflict in
the Horn of Africa
Ongoing conflict in the Horn of Africa — from Sudan to
the Ethiopia-Eritrea dispute, and the absence of government in
Somalia — provides one of the greatest causes for foreign powers
to intervene in the Indian Ocean region, and, at the same time
deters foreign inward invest- ment. Is it time to recognize the
Republic of Somaliland as a key factor in stabilizing the
region, and, along with resolving the Eritrea- Ethiopia dispute,
securing the Red Sea-Suez.
6B: Politics, Economics, &
Resources
Defining the Indian Ocean’s Trading
Currency in the New Era. Impact on, and of, Inward and Outward
Investment
New realities spell the need for trading currencies which
reflect Indian Ocean — African, South and South-East Asian,
Middle Eastern, and Australasian — needs and usage. What will be
the dominant Indian Ocean currency of the 21st Century? The
Indian rupee? New forms of trading currencies? Or an ongoing
dependent on Atlantic currencies — the dollar and euro — when
Atlantic thinking may no longer dominate?
6C: Socio-Political Issues
The Indian Ocean Region as a Centre for
Educational Excellence
One key to harmonized economic growth and stability in
the Indian Ocean region will be in maintaining and expanding the
area’s cross-fertilization in education. How can standards be
harmonized, languages be mutually taught, and research be
coordinated to achieve better regional outcomes? What are the
educational areas of essential focus for the region in the
coming decade?
17.30: Plenary
Session: Outcomes: Options for Economic, Political, and Security
Cooperation in the Indian Ocean.
A wrap-up of key points made at Strategy2010.
18.30: Formal
Farewell Reception
Call For Papers
The Conference has issued a Call
for Papers which would fit within the conference framework
outlined above. Submissions can be made for papers to be actually
delivered at the event, or to be distributed as written or
electronic presentations to delegates and, and following, the event.
1. Papers will be accepted solely at the
discretion of the Conference Chairman and the Conference Management
team, and no correspondence will be entered into following the
selection process. Most papers should be for presentation in a
timeframe of appr. 20 minutes, and speakers delivering papers at the
event should anticipate a similar amount of time for Q&A. Written
documents can be of a longer nature, for inclusion in the electronic
Proceedings of the event which will be given to each
participant. Some presentations may be selected for inclusion in
Defense & Foreign Affairs online or print journals.
2. Proposals for presentations should be
submitted in summary or outline form, and with an appropriate
biographical background of the speaker, by July 1, 2010, at the
latest, to the Conference Chairman, Gregory Copley, at email
GRCopley@StrategicStudies.org.
Clearly, as events determine in the region, it is understood that
topics and content may need to be updated or amended closer to the
presentation date. Ideally, submissions should be in Microsoft Word
format.
3. Once a topic and speaker have been
approved, papers for physical presentation at the event must be
submitted to the Conference Chairman by email by September 30, 2010,
in a complete text and (if applicable) electronic (PowerPoint)
format.
4. The presenter, if approved, is
responsible for finding his or her way to the event, and for all
accommodation and other costs associated with attending the event.
Speakers will, however, not be required to pay Delegate Fees for
participation in the event, and will be permitted access to all
areas of the conference and associated social functions, including
the various luncheons, dinners, and other events which are part of
the Conference. |
